PPP (12/8-9, Democrats)
Caroline Kennedy (D): 44
Andrew Cuomo (D): 23
Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 6
Tom Suozzi (D): 3
Byron Brown (D): 3
Carolyn Maloney (D): 3
Nydia Velazquez (D): 4
Brian Higgins (D): 5
Not sure/someone else: 8
(MoE: ±3.2%)
PPP’s poll of New York Democrats shows a wide showing of support for Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton (to the seat once held by Robert F. Kennedy). Now, it could certainly be argued that this is simply a test of name recognition, seeing as how there isn’t any public campaigning for the position; this really isn’t any different than a poll of vice-presidential preferences, since there’s really only one voter that decides the race (David Paterson, in this case). But it suggests that not only is Paterson safe in appointing elective neophyte Kennedy, but that he’d likely receive widespread support for doing so.
Second choice for NY-Sen
Caroline Kennedy (D): 24
Andrew Cuomo (D): 35
Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 4
Tom Suozzi (D): 4
Byron Brown (D): 5
Carolyn Maloney (D): 9
Nydia Velazquez (D): 6
Brian Higgins (D): 5
Not sure/someone else: 9
As an added bonus, PPP also asks respondents their second choices. It looks like Kennedy-then-Cuomo and Cuomo-then-Kennedy are by far the most common configurations (again, assumedly because of their high name recognition), although Carolyn Maloney puts together a surprisingly strong showing (probably thanks to her presence in the NYC media market).
Marist (12/8, registered voters)
Caroline Kennedy (D): 25
Andrew Cuomo (D): 25
Byron Brown (D): 6
Nydia Velazquez (D): 4
Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 4
Carolyn Maloney (D): 3
Tom Suozzi (D): 3
Adolfo Carrion (D): 2
Steve Israel (D): 1
Unsure: 26
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Marist, by contrast, polls registered voters instead of Democrats only, and seems to push leaners less. They find a much closer contest between Kennedy and Cuomo, suggesting a lot of Democratic loyalty to the House of Kennedy. Breakdown by party shows Democrats supporting 31 for Kennedy vs. 21 for Cuomo, while Republican support is 34 for Cuomo and 21 for Kennedy. Kennedy leads in NYC, while Cuomo gets the plurality of support in the suburbs and upstate.
while, quite surprisingly, PPP didn’t do it for everyone (only for Velazquez, Cuomo, Gillibrand, and Kennedy). Paterson’s approval numbers look pretty good though, and I think it might make him less likely to appoint Cuomo, since it seems less likely that he’d want to challenge him in a primary.
with New York voters he has two candidates to pick from, unless he is certain he can consolidate support among certain groups by merely picking someone of that characteristic (Woman, African American, Hispanic, etc.)
While Cuomo has been elected statewide, and Kennedy is nationally-known. But that doesn’t mean one of the Representatives shouldn’t be appointed to the Senate seat.
are basically a name recognition test, as you say; it does say, though, that New Yorkers do in fact like the sound of Caroline K., and don’t object to a novice elected official, which is valuable for her (and name recognition also counts in terms of fundraising and warding off a major challenge; Caroline or Cuomo is likely to make Republican dollar-bosses look elsewhere for competitive use of their valuable moolah).